由于气价高企、电价机制疏导滞后等因素，天然气发电依然在生存线上徘徊。

　　Due to factors such as high gas prices and lagging electricity pricing mechanisms, natural gas power generation is still hovering on the survival line.

　　作为中国GDP第一强省，广东省是名副其实的天然气利用大省。当前，广东天然气发电机组占全国天然气总装机容量的四分之一。广东省的经济布局，为天然气机组发挥调峰优势提供了天然土壤。在用地紧张、地价较高、追求低碳发展的珠三角地区，若要近距离布局电源，天然气发电无疑是最理想的选择。

　　As the province with the strongest GDP in China, Guangdong Province is truly a major province in natural gas utilization. Currently, Guangdong's natural gas power generation units account for a quarter of the country's total installed natural gas capacity. The economic layout of Guangdong Province provides natural soil for natural gas units to leverage their peak shaving advantages. In the Pearl River Delta region where land is scarce, land prices are high, and low-carbon development is pursued, natural gas power generation is undoubtedly the most ideal choice for close range layout of power sources.

　　广东还拥有多元化的受气结构：从中国南海气田通过海底管道输送的天然气，深圳大鹏LNG等沿海接收站的海外长协、LNG现货气以及通过西气东输二线和三线抵达广州的管道气，广东省的气源具备其他省份难以企及的优势。

　　Guangdong also has a diversified gas receiving structure: natural gas transported from the South China Sea gas fields through submarine pipelines, overseas long-term contracts and LNG spot gas from coastal receiving stations such as Shenzhen Dapeng LNG, and pipeline gas arriving in Guangzhou through the West East Gas Pipeline 2 and 3. Guangdong's gas sources have advantages that other provinces cannot match.

　　2025年上半年，广东省燃气机组更是进入密集投产期。国家能源集团肇庆电厂二期、国能清远石角热电一期燃机项目、深能妈湾电厂升级改造项目、深燃热电高埗电厂燃气热电联产改扩建等多个项目积极落地投产。截至今年6月底，广东天然气发电总装机达5434.2万千瓦，同比增长22.42%。

　　In the first half of 2025, gas turbines in Guangdong Province will enter a period of intensive production. Multiple projects, including the second phase of the National Energy Group Zhaoqing Power Plant, the first phase of the Guoneng Qingyuan Shijiao Thermal Power Plant gas turbine project, the upgrading and renovation project of the Shenneng Mawan Power Plant, and the expansion of the Shenran Thermal Power Gaobu Power Plant gas-fired cogeneration project, have been actively put into operation. As of the end of June this year, the total installed capacity of natural gas power generation in Guangdong reached 54.342 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.42%.

　　近日发布的《2025年广东电力市场半年报告》显示，截至2025年6月底，广东电网统调装机容量2.423亿千瓦，同比增长18%。从分装机类型来看，煤电、气电依旧是主流，装机容量占比52.16%。

　　The recently released "Half Year Report on Guangdong Power Market in 2025" shows that as of the end of June 2025, the installed capacity of Guangdong power grid through unified commissioning was 242.3 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. From the perspective of packaging machine types, coal-fired and gas-fired power are still the mainstream, accounting for 52.16% of installed capacity.

　　另外一个燃气机组密集上马的区域是川渝地区。8月，华能重庆两江燃机和川投达州燃气电站二期项目投产运行。华能重庆两江燃机二期项目4号机组正式投产后，总装机容量跃升至241.8万千瓦，成为西南地区规模最大的天然气清洁能源电厂。

　　Another area where gas turbines are densely installed is the Sichuan Chongqing region. In August, the Huaneng Chongqing Liangjiang Gas Turbine and Chuantou Dazhou Gas Power Station Phase II projects were put into operation. After Unit 4 of the Huaneng Chongqing Liangjiang Gas Turbine Phase II Project was officially put into operation, the total installed capacity jumped to 2.418 million kilowatts, becoming the largest natural gas clean energy power plant in the southwest region.

　　川渝地区天然气资源丰富，产量占全国的四分之一，尤其是近些年该地区页岩气资源大规模开发，更是带来了丰富的气源。2022年，传统水电大省四川省，在经历了极端高温和严重干旱期间水力发电量的大幅下降，电力供应一度十分紧张。之后，为应对极端条件下缺电，四川规划了规模空前的燃气发电项目。这些项目迅速得到核准，并进入建设阶段。

　　The Sichuan Chongqing region is rich in natural gas resources, accounting for a quarter of the country's total production. Especially in recent years, the large-scale development of shale gas resources in the region has brought abundant gas sources. In 2022, Sichuan Province, a traditional hydropower powerhouse, experienced a significant decline in hydroelectric power generation during extreme high temperatures and severe droughts, leading to a severe shortage of electricity supply. Afterwards, in response to extreme power shortages, Sichuan planned an unprecedentedly large-scale gas-fired power generation project. These projects were quickly approved and entered the construction phase.

　　2024年，四川的燃气装机容量从最初的70万KW增至288万千瓦，预计到2025年底，四川在建和建成的气电装机容量将达1200万千瓦以上。两年内，该省的天然气发电量将在2023年的水平上增长15倍。这些电厂的设计目的是在水力发电减少时满足峰值负荷。然而，它们会不可避免地与天然气外输争夺气源。

　　In 2024, the gas installed capacity in Sichuan will increase from the initial 700000 kW to 2.88 million kW. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the gas and electricity installed capacity under construction or completed in Sichuan will reach over 12 million kW. Within two years, the natural gas power generation in the province will increase by 15 times compared to the level in 2023. The design purpose of these power plants is to meet peak loads when hydroelectric power generation is reduced. However, they will inevitably compete with natural gas exports for gas sources.

　　除了传统的燃机发展区域外，安徽、湖南等一些省份也开始陆续投建新的机组。

　　In addition to traditional gas turbine development areas, some provinces such as Anhui and Hunan have also begun to invest in building new units.

　　回顾“十四五”前3年，我国气电新增装机约2400万千瓦，年均增长800万千瓦。中电联数据显示，2024年，我国气电装机新投产1899万千瓦，同比多投产873万千瓦，新投产装机规模创历年新高。2024年底，我国总装机容量1.4亿千瓦，全年发电用气量为661亿立方米，增速为6.6%。

　　Looking back at the first three years of the 14th Five Year Plan, China's new installed capacity of gas and electricity was about 24 million kilowatts, with an average annual growth of 8 million kilowatts. According to data from China Electricity Council, in 2024, China's newly installed gas and electricity capacity will reach 18.99 million kilowatts, an increase of 8.73 million kilowatts compared to the same period last year, and the scale of newly installed capacity will reach a new historical high. By the end of 2024, China's total installed capacity will be 140 million kilowatts, and the annual gas consumption for power generation will be 66.1 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 6.6%.

　　在我国，天然气发电装机主要集中在长三角区域的江浙沪、珠三角区域广东，以及京津冀等负荷中心省市。截至2024年底，国内天然气发电装机在全国发电装机结构中占比4.3%；年发电量约3171亿千瓦时，约占全社会用电量的3.2%。

　　In China, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation is mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong, and load center provinces and cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. As of the end of 2024, the proportion of domestic natural gas power generation installed capacity in the national power generation installed capacity structure is 4.3%; The annual power generation is about 317.1 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for about 3.2% of the total electricity consumption in society.

　　据中石油经济技术研究院发布的《2024年国内外油气行业发展报告》预测，2025年，发电用气将引领我国天然气消费增长，同比增长8.9%至720亿立方米。预计2025年全国气电新增装机超2000万千瓦，总装机容量超1.6亿千瓦。

　　According to the "2024 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" released by the China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, it is predicted that by 2025, power generation gas will lead the growth of natural gas consumption in China, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% to 72 billion cubic meters. It is expected that by 2025, the newly installed capacity of gas and electricity in China will exceed 20 million kilowatts, and the total installed capacity will exceed 160 million kilowatts.

　　看似蓬勃的发展态势下，困扰天然气发电行业多年的问题--行业亏损，依然没有得到解决。燃气发电成本居高不下，国际LNG价格波动导致部分电厂“多发多亏”；电价机制中，气电的调峰价值并未充分显现，电价疏导机制滞后，灵活保供优势难匹配经济可持续性等这些矛盾，正构成当下燃气机组生存必须突破的瓶颈。

　　Despite the seemingly thriving development trend, the problem that has plagued the natural gas power generation industry for many years - industry losses - has not yet been resolved. The high cost of gas-fired power generation and the fluctuation of international LNG prices have led to some power plants' excessive production; In the electricity pricing mechanism, the peak shaving value of gas and electricity has not been fully demonstrated, the electricity price diversion mechanism lags behind, and the advantages of flexible supply guarantee are difficult to match with economic sustainability, which are the bottlenecks that must be overcome for the survival of gas turbines at present.

　　艰难的生存

　　Difficult survival

　　随着可再生能源的发展，天然气在能源转型中找到立足之地并不容易。行业内普遍认为，燃气发电能够快速启停，这使得它能够在新能源发电出力不足时满足电力调峰需求，气电可作为支撑可再生能源消纳的重要调节电源。

　　With the development of renewable energy, it is not easy for natural gas to find a foothold in the energy transition. It is widely believed in the industry that gas-fired power generation can quickly start and stop, which enables it to meet the demand for peak shaving of electricity when the output of new energy generation is insufficient. Gas electricity can serve as an important regulating power source to support the consumption of renewable energy.

　　尽管天然气发电机组的优势显而易见，但不容忽视的是，天然气发电的经济性制约着该行业的长期发展。燃料价格过高，始终是气电发展的掣肘。

　　Although the advantages of natural gas power generation units are obvious, it cannot be ignored that the economic viability of natural gas power generation restricts the long-term development of the industry. The high fuel prices have always been a hindrance to the development of gas and electricity.

　　气电的燃料成本占比高达85%左右，受资源禀赋限制，中国天然气供应40%左右的量需要依赖进口，天然气价格长期偏高。国内天然气产地与用气地区之间的距离较远，管输费高，加重了天然气发电的成本负担。

　　The fuel cost of gas and electricity accounts for about 85%, and due to resource endowment limitations, about 40% of China's natural gas supply relies on imports, resulting in long-term high natural gas prices. The distance between domestic natural gas production areas and gas consuming regions is relatively long, resulting in high pipeline transportation costs, which increases the cost burden of natural gas power generation.

　　气价高和资源紧张是制约气电发展的最大因素，因而高成本和电力价格倒挂则是气电发展受限的最大矛盾点。根据测算，假设天然气价格在2.2～2.7元/立方米之间，按每千瓦时电耗气0.2立方米计算，气电综合发电成本约0.59～0.72元/千瓦时。

　　High gas prices and resource constraints are the biggest factors restricting the development of gas and electricity. Therefore, high costs and inverted electricity prices are the biggest contradictions that limit the development of gas and electricity. According to calculations, assuming the natural gas price is between 2.2 and 2.7 yuan/cubic meter, and based on a gas consumption of 0.2 cubic meters per kilowatt hour, the comprehensive cost of gas electricity generation is approximately 0.59 to 0.72 yuan/kilowatt hour.

　　燃气发电较高的变动成本是其参与现货市场竞争面临的最大挑战，市场化条件下燃气机组的电量竞争处于弱势。广东一位燃气电厂的内部人士称，2022年俄乌冲突发生后，天然气价格一度涨到4元/立方米。彼时，飙升的LNG价格导致广东许多燃气发电机组停产停运。当年，燃气发电量下降了7%，全省37家燃气发电公司中只有两家盈利。虽然近期供需紧张有所缓解，但气价依然在2.8元/立方米的高位。

　　The high variable cost of gas-fired power generation is the biggest challenge it faces in participating in spot market competition, and under market-oriented conditions, the electricity competition of gas-fired units is weak. An insider from a gas power plant in Guangdong said that after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the price of natural gas once rose to 4 yuan/m3. At that time, the soaring LNG prices led to the shutdown of many gas-fired power generation units in Guangdong. At that time, gas power generation decreased by 7%, and only two out of 37 gas power generation companies in the province were profitable. Although the recent supply-demand tension has eased, gas prices remain at a high level of 2.8 yuan/cubic meter.

　　广东70%的燃气发电，依赖进口的LNG。这种依赖带来了潜在的风险--全球天然气价格易受地缘政治动荡的影响。较高的天然气价格，使得天然气发电的度电成本居高不下。尽管上网电价在一定范围内，但当LNG价格达到较高水平时，电厂的盈亏平衡点上网电价依然高于省内上网电价的上限。这也导致存在终端销售电价无法完全覆盖燃料成本的情况。

　　70% of Guangdong's gas-fired power generation relies on imported LNG. This dependence brings potential risks - global natural gas prices are susceptible to geopolitical turbulence. The high price of natural gas has resulted in a high cost per kilowatt hour for natural gas power generation. Although the on grid electricity price is within a certain range, when the LNG price reaches a high level, the breakeven point of the power plant's on grid electricity price is still higher than the upper limit of the provincial on grid electricity price. This also leads to situations where terminal sales electricity prices cannot fully cover fuel costs.

　　由于燃料成本较高，燃气发电机组的上网电价水平长期处于高位，因此一些地方政府采取了两部制电价、直接给予财政补贴等方式来加以疏导。

　　Due to the high cost of fuel, the on grid electricity price level of gas-fired generators has remained high for a long time. Therefore, some local governments have adopted a two-part electricity price system and directly provided financial subsidies to alleviate the situation.

　　江浙地区的气电发展模式与广东不同。从装机规模看，截至2024年底，江苏的天然气发电装机规模达到2150万千瓦，浙江达到1357万千瓦。尽管江浙装机量在全国排名第二和第三位，但规模远低于广东。

　　The development model of gas and electricity in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is different from that in Guangdong. From the perspective of installed capacity, by the end of 2024, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation in Jiangsu will reach 21.5 million kilowatts, and in Zhejiang it will reach 13.57 million kilowatts. Although Jiangsu and Zhejiang have the second and third highest installed capacity in the country, their scale is far lower than that of Guangdong.

　　在江浙地区，气电机组基本未完全进入电力市场。浙江去年曾尝试将天然气发电机组纳入电力市场，今年又退出。整体来看，这两个省份的气电虽名义上归为“市场电”，但仍带有较强的“计划电”痕迹。

　　In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, gas-fired power units have not fully entered the electricity market. Zhejiang attempted to include natural gas generators in the electricity market last year, but withdrew again this year. Overall, although the gas and electricity in these two provinces are nominally classified as "market electricity", they still have strong traces of "planned electricity".

　　以浙江为例。其采用了独特的气电定价模式：一方面，容量定价部分会充分保障电厂收益；另一方面，电量定价与气源价格联动。根据燃气电厂的出力情况和天然气价格，定期核算天然气的发电成本，定期调整电量电价。

　　Taking Zhejiang as an example. It adopts a unique gas electricity pricing model: on the one hand, the capacity pricing part will fully guarantee the power plant's revenue; On the other hand, electricity pricing is linked to gas source pricing. Based on the output of gas-fired power plants and natural gas prices, regularly calculate the cost of natural gas power generation and adjust electricity prices regularly.

　　“气电联动”的定价模式可以为燃气机组的发电成本进行一定程度的托底，但弊端是电厂对于机组的利用缺乏主动权，只能根据气源或者发电安排来起停机组。

　　The pricing model of "gas electricity linkage" can provide a certain degree of support for the power generation cost of gas-fired units, but the disadvantage is that power plants lack initiative in the utilization of units and can only start and stop units based on gas sources or power generation arrangements.

　　随着天然气发电装机容量的不断提升，未来价格疏导的压力越来越大。结果是气电价格难以有效合理疏导，气电企业发电的积极性因此受挫。

　　With the continuous increase in installed capacity of natural gas power generation, the pressure of price easing in the future is increasing. The result is that the price of gas and electricity is difficult to effectively and reasonably guide, which has dampened the enthusiasm of gas and electricity enterprises to generate electricity.

　　更为艰难的是，随着各省新能源装机比例的不断提高，燃气机组的发电小时数在一路走低。由于资源与环境等因素的制约，中国天然气发电的利用小时数一直相对较低，约为2500～2600小时。特别是天然气发电的变动成本一般高于煤、水、核、风、光等电源，导致气电实际出力情况受到其他电源品种的严重挤压，仅在枯水、夜间等电力供应紧张时段才能保持较长时间运行，整体上影响了气电的发电效率。

　　Even more difficult is that with the continuous increase in the proportion of new energy installed in various provinces, the power generation hours of gas turbines have been declining. Due to resource and environmental constraints, the utilization hours of natural gas power generation in China have been relatively low, ranging from 2500 to 2600 hours. In particular, the variable costs of natural gas power generation are generally higher than those of coal, water, nuclear, wind, solar and other power sources, resulting in severe pressure on the actual output of gas power from other power sources. It can only maintain long-term operation during periods of tight power supply such as dry water and nighttime, which overall affects the efficiency of gas power generation.

　　在采访中，发电企业普遍认为，2025年，天然气发电机组的利用小时数会进一步降低。广东一些机组的年利用小时数甚至会降到2000小时以下。和煤电在新型电力系统中的遭遇一样，气电的生存空间受到了快速增长的新能源装机的挤压。

　　In interviews, power generation companies generally believe that the utilization hours of natural gas generators will further decrease by 2025. The annual utilization hours of some units in Guangdong may even drop below 2000 hours. Like coal-fired power in the new power system, the survival space of gas-fired power has been squeezed by the rapidly growing installed capacity of new energy.

　　困难的背后

　　Behind the difficulties

　　燃气发电经营困难的原因复杂而多元。

　　The reasons for the difficulties in operating gas-fired power generation are complex and diverse.

　　中国气电主要布局在长三角、珠三角和京津地区，南方以调峰机组为主，北方以热电联产机组为主。受气源供应、管网建设、电价承受力等因素影响，广东、江浙沪、京津等地区气电装机容量较高，占全国比重约80%。广东、浙江、上海等省市调峰气电占比约70%~80%；北京、天津由于冬季供暖需求大，全部是热电联产机组，江苏工业供热负荷较多，70%以上为热电联产机组。

　　China's gas power is mainly deployed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing Tianjin region, with peak shaving units in the south and cogeneration units in the north. Affected by factors such as gas supply, pipeline construction, and electricity price capacity, the installed capacity of gas and electricity in Guangdong, Jiangsu Zhejiang Shanghai, Beijing Tianjin and other regions is relatively high, accounting for about 80% of the national total. The proportion of peak shaving gas and electricity in provinces and cities such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is about 70% to 80%; Due to the high demand for winter heating in Beijing and Tianjin, all units are cogeneration units. Jiangsu has a higher industrial heating load, with over 70% being cogeneration units.

　　目前，我国天然气价格政策仍在执行2014年出台的《关于规范天然气发电上网电价管理有关问题的通知》（发改价格〔2014〕3009号）文件，天然气发电定价权下放到省级价格主管部门，建立了气电价格联动机制并明确了封顶价格，鼓励地方政府通过财政补贴、气价优惠疏导天然气发电价格的矛盾。

　　At present, China's natural gas pricing policy is still implementing the "Notice on Regulating the Management of On grid Electricity Prices for Natural Gas Power Generation" (NDRC Price [2014] No. 3009) issued in 2014. The pricing power of natural gas power generation has been delegated to provincial price authorities, a gas electricity price linkage mechanism has been established, and a cap price has been clarified. Local governments are encouraged to alleviate the contradictions in natural gas power generation prices through financial subsidies and gas price discounts.

　　在我国，各地气电电价模式和水平不一。当前，中国气电执行单一制和两部制这两种电价方式。2014年起，上海、浙江、江苏、河南陆续开始执行两部制电价，广东更是把燃气机组推向电力市场。据统计，单一制电价为0.61~0.69元/千瓦时；两部制电价中容量电价每月为28~48元/千瓦、电量电价为0.44~0.55元/千瓦时。

　　In China, the pricing patterns and levels of gas and electricity vary from place to place. Currently, China implements two electricity pricing methods for gas and electricity: a single system and a two-part system. Since 2014, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Henan have successively implemented a two-part electricity pricing system, and Guangdong has pushed gas turbines into the electricity market. According to statistics, the single system electricity price is 0.61~0.69 yuan/kWh; The capacity electricity price in the two-part electricity pricing system is 28-48 yuan/kilowatt per month, and the electricity price is 0.44-0.55 yuan/kilowatt hour.

　　由于容量电价基本可补偿电厂固定成本，电量电价与变动成本持平或略高，两部制电价对气电企业经营形成兜底。可是，即便在有容量电价保障的省份，天然气发电厂的经营也不容易。

　　Due to the fact that the capacity electricity price can basically compensate for the fixed costs of power plants, the electricity price and variable costs are equal or slightly higher, and the two-part electricity price forms a bottom line for the operation of gas and power enterprises. However, even in provinces with capacity pricing guarantees, the operation of natural gas power plants is not easy.

　　除了燃料成本一直处于高位外，气和电长协签订时间不匹配问题也很突出。电力市场长协签订窗口期主要在11-12月份，但是天然气等一次能源长协签订窗口一般在次年3月份，电厂难以根据锁定的天然气长协量价决策电力长协量价，导致两者存在较大的错配风险。

　　In addition to the consistently high fuel costs, the issue of mismatched signing times for gas and electricity long-term agreements is also prominent. The signing window for long-term agreements in the electricity market is mainly in November December, but the signing window for long-term agreements for primary energy such as natural gas is generally in March of the following year. Power plants find it difficult to make decisions on the long-term agreement price for electricity based on the locked natural gas price, resulting in a significant risk of mismatch between the two.

　　燃气电厂的实际用气量波动非常大。作为调峰机组，其出力情况往往受电力市场供需的影响，并不能完全符合供气协议的刚性计划要求。“计划气”与“市场电”的矛盾反过来又限制了燃气机组的调峰能力。

　　The actual gas consumption of gas-fired power plants fluctuates greatly. As a peak shaving unit, its output is often affected by the supply and demand of the electricity market, and cannot fully meet the rigid planning requirements of the gas supply agreement. The contradiction between "planned gas" and "market electricity" in turn limits the peak shaving capacity of gas turbines.

　　天然气发电受天然气调度、电力调度的双重制约，气、电供需错配可能出现“顶峰缺气”、“谷段多气”的现象。以广东为例，存在电力日计划与天然气日指定时间不匹配问题。发电用气需求计划确定时间为用气前一天的晚上10点，天然气需求计划则是用气前一天早上10点前。广东现行的电力现货交易机制使得各发电用户无法确定是否可以摘单发电指标，发电用气需求无法提前确定。天然气需求计划由于天然气管道运行的特殊性，计划性比较强，发电计划用气确定时间滞后于天然气需求计划上报时间。

　　Natural gas power generation is subject to the dual constraints of natural gas dispatch and power dispatch, and the mismatch between gas and electricity supply and demand may result in "peak gas shortage" and "valley gas excess". Taking Guangdong as an example, there is a problem of mismatch between the daily electricity plan and the designated time for natural gas. The gas demand plan for power generation is determined at 10 pm the day before gas consumption, while the natural gas demand plan is determined before 10 am the day before gas consumption. The current spot trading mechanism for electricity in Guangdong makes it difficult for power generation users to determine whether they can obtain electricity generation quotas, and the demand for electricity generation gas cannot be determined in advance. Due to the special operation of natural gas pipelines, the natural gas demand plan has strong planning, and the determination of gas consumption for power generation plans lags behind the submission time of the natural gas demand plan.

　　当前电力现货市场采用“边际定价”机制。该机制下，某一时段所有参与发电的机组，都会统一按“边际机组”的报价来结算。“在缺电时段，天然气机组依据自身较高的燃料成本，报出如1元/kWh的价格，若中标应遵循电价出清规则，以1元/kWh执行发电。但实际规则中，这类报价被归为‘强征’范畴：机组仍然发电，却会被排除在定价排序之外，无法按自报价格结算，只能执行规则出清的低价。而该价格可能显著低于发电成本。”一位电厂人士向记者介绍道。针对气电定价问题，地方政府存在两方面顾虑。一方面担心，若允许气电按自身报价定价，可能拉高全社会整体电价水平；另一方面，若气电高定价成为市场基准，可能会让其他原本成本较低的低价电源，因按此高价结算获得过高利润。

　　The current electricity spot market adopts a "marginal pricing" mechanism. Under this mechanism, all units participating in power generation during a certain period will be settled based on the quote of the "marginal unit". During periods of power shortage, natural gas units quote a price of 1 yuan/kWh based on their higher fuel costs. If they win the bid, they should follow the electricity price clearing rules and generate electricity at 1 yuan/kWh. But in practice, such quotations are classified as' forced collection ': if the unit still generates electricity, it will be excluded from the pricing ranking and cannot be settled according to the self quoted price, only the low price cleared by the rules can be executed. And the price may be significantly lower than the cost of electricity generation. ”A power plant personnel introduced to the reporter. Local governments have two concerns regarding the pricing of gas and electricity. On the one hand, there is concern that if gas and electricity are allowed to be priced according to their own prices, it may raise the overall electricity price level of the whole society; On the other hand, if the high pricing of gas and electricity becomes the market benchmark, it may allow other low-priced power sources with lower costs to settle at this high price and gain excessive profits.

　　由于现货价格是月度、年度交易的重要参考基准，当现货价因限制被压低后，发电企业与电力用户在制定明年长协时，都会以这一价格为依据。这样造成的结果是，天然气发电机组在长协合同签订时，依然不是反映成本的真实价格。

　　Due to the fact that spot prices are an important reference benchmark for monthly and annual transactions, when spot prices are lowered due to restrictions, power generation companies and electricity users will use this price as a basis when formulating long-term agreements for next year. The result of this is that natural gas generators still do not reflect the true cost when signing long-term contracts.

　　“无须因电价过高顾虑而限制气电合理定价，若担忧低价其他电源利润过高，可出台类似新能源机制电价的专项政策--将水电、核电、新能源等电源超出合理范围的超额利润回收，再通过合理机制返还给全社会。这样一来既避免了低价电源利润失衡，也为气电按成本合理定价留出了空间。”上述人士建议道。

　　There is no need to restrict the reasonable pricing of gas and electricity due to concerns about high electricity prices. If there are concerns about low prices and high profits from other power sources, a special policy similar to the new energy mechanism electricity price can be introduced to recover excess profits from power sources such as hydropower, nuclear power, and new energy that exceed the reasonable range, and then return them to the whole society through a reasonable mechanism. This not only avoids the imbalance of profits from low-priced power sources, but also leaves room for reasonable pricing of gas and electricity based on cost, "suggested the above-mentioned person.

　　业内的共识是，气电具有负荷调节范围宽、响应速度快等特点，相较于其他类型机组具备更快更强的调峰能力。但目前各地尚未建立全面的电力辅助服务价格机制，调峰价值并未充分得到市场的认可。

　　The industry consensus is that gas and electricity have the characteristics of wide load regulation range and fast response speed, and have faster and stronger peak shaving capabilities compared to other types of units. However, a comprehensive pricing mechanism for power auxiliary services has not yet been established in various regions, and the peak shaving value has not been fully recognized by the market.

　　相比之下，在国外完全竞争或近似完全竞争的电力市场中，用电高峰期和非高峰期的电价差异极大，为平时利用率不高但在高峰负荷时期提供电力保障的气电机组提供了盈利渠道。此外，当前碳交易和排污权交易市场尚未成熟，燃气发电环保低碳等环境价值尚未显现出来。

　　In contrast, in electricity markets with perfect or near perfect competition abroad, there is a significant difference in electricity prices between peak and off peak periods, providing a profit channel for gas turbines that have low utilization rates but provide power security during peak load periods. In addition, the current carbon trading and emission trading markets are not yet mature, and the environmental value of gas power generation, such as environmental protection and low-carbon, has not yet been demonstrated.

　　未来的空间

　　Future space

　　在燃气发电占比较高的国家，燃气发电用气是天然气消费的主要部分。在中国，随着燃气发电的发展，气电占天然气消费量的比例正在增长。

　　In countries with a high proportion of gas-fired power generation, gas consumption is the main part of natural gas consumption for gas-fired power generation. In China, with the development of gas-fired power generation, the proportion of gas-fired electricity in natural gas consumption is increasing.

　　最新发布的《中国天然气发展报告（2025）》显示，2024年，工业燃料用气占41%，城市燃气用气占比34%，是天然气消费的主体，发电用气占天然气消费量的18%，同比增长9.5%。而在较发达国家，燃气发电用气一般占到天然气消费的1/3左右。相比之下，中国燃气发电用气量占比不算高。天然气消费主要用在工业燃料和城市燃气，尤其是秋冬季节北方地区采暖高峰，在天然气紧缺的情况下需要首先保障城市燃气和居民用气。

　　The latest "China Natural Gas Development Report (2025)" shows that in 2024, industrial fuel gas accounts for 41%, urban gas accounts for 34%, and it is the main body of natural gas consumption. Power generation gas accounts for 18% of natural gas consumption, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. In more developed countries, gas for power generation generally accounts for about one-third of natural gas consumption. In contrast, the proportion of gas consumption for gas-fired power generation in China is not particularly high. Natural gas consumption is mainly used as industrial fuel and urban gas, especially during the peak heating season in northern regions in autumn and winter. In the case of natural gas shortage, it is necessary to first ensure the supply of urban gas and residential gas.

　　我国气电装机经历过三次规模化扩张。2005-2010年，随着西气东输工程的推进、深圳大鹏LNG接收站等基础设施的落地，配套燃气电厂同步规划建设，为气电规模化发展奠定了基础。2014年，环保政策为气电装机发展第二次助推力：彼时北方地区大力推进“煤改气”与清洁取暖工作，同时在环境容量要求较高的区域，新增一批燃气电厂，气电在环保导向下实现进一步扩张。进入新能源装机快速发展的阶段，受新能源发电间歇性、波动性的影响，调峰需求日益凸显，在西北、西南等新能源发展迅速且天然气气源有保障的区域，燃气发电凭借其灵活调峰特性，迎来了新的发展机遇。

　　China's gas and electricity installed capacity has undergone three large-scale expansions. From 2005 to 2010, with the advancement of the West East Gas Pipeline Project and the landing of infrastructure such as the Shenzhen Dapeng LNG receiving station, the synchronous planning and construction of supporting gas power plants laid the foundation for the large-scale development of gas and electricity. In 2014, environmental policies provided the second impetus for the development of gas and electricity installed capacity: at that time, the northern region vigorously promoted the "coal to gas" and clean heating work. At the same time, a number of gas power plants were added in areas with high environmental capacity requirements, and gas and electricity were further expanded under the guidance of environmental protection. Entering the stage of rapid development of new energy installed capacity, the demand for peak shaving is becoming increasingly prominent due to the intermittent and fluctuating nature of new energy power generation. In regions such as the northwest and southwest where new energy development is rapid and natural gas sources are guaranteed, gas-fired power generation, with its flexible peak shaving characteristics, has ushered in new development opportunities.

　　分析人士认为，以前燃气发电的投资主要布局在沿海区域和具有支付能力的城市，未来燃气发电的增长极主要在具有价格竞争力的天然气资源和具有调峰需求的新能源地区，如西北和四川、重庆等。

　　Analysts believe that in the past, investment in gas-fired power generation was mainly focused on coastal areas and cities with payment capabilities. In the future, the growth pole of gas-fired power generation will mainly be in natural gas resources with price competitiveness and new energy regions with peak shaving demand, such as Northwest China, Sichuan, Chongqing, etc.

　　从投资主体看，以往天然气发电的投资主体主要是“五大四小”发电企业和三大石油企业，现在地方能源企业和民营企业多有涉足。一些地方能源集团因为有LNG接收站，将燃气机组在接收站附近布局，经营情况相对较好。

　　From the perspective of investment entities, in the past, the main investment entities for natural gas power generation were the "five big and four small" power generation enterprises and the three major oil enterprises. Nowadays, local energy enterprises and private enterprises are more involved. Due to the presence of LNG receiving stations, some local energy groups have deployed gas turbines near the receiving stations, resulting in relatively good business performance.

　　从发展方向来看，燃气发电全面走向市场化已是必然趋势。随着电力市场机制的不断完善，气电企业的核心竞争力将不再是“政策依赖”，而是“气源获取能力”--能否找到上游低价气源、能否通过供应链管理控制成本，将直接决定企业的市场地位。

　　From the perspective of development direction, the comprehensive marketization of gas-fired power generation is an inevitable trend. With the continuous improvement of the electricity market mechanism, the core competitiveness of gas power enterprises will no longer be "policy dependence", but "gas source acquisition ability" - whether they can find upstream low-priced gas sources and control costs through supply chain management will directly determine the market position of the enterprise.

　　2022年初，俄乌冲突爆发后全球天然气供给格局加速演变，俄管道气供给断崖下滑而全球对LNG需求激增，LNG出口终端建设周期较长且疫情期间各出口国对LNG终端投资较少，导致全球天然气出口终端产能释放高峰期集中于2025年后。根据在建项目建设节奏，2026-2030年天然气供给或将进入快速增长期。在供需持续宽松的背景下，国际气价中长期或呈现下行趋势，有望进一步刺激下游需求增长。

　　At the beginning of 2022, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global natural gas supply pattern accelerated its evolution. The Russian pipeline gas supply declined precipitously while the global demand for LNG surged. The construction cycle of LNG export terminals was long and the export countries invested less in LNG terminals during the epidemic, leading to the peak of global natural gas export terminal capacity release concentrated after 2025. According to the construction pace of ongoing projects, natural gas supply may enter a period of rapid growth from 2026 to 2030. Against the backdrop of sustained loose supply and demand, international gas prices may show a downward trend in the medium to long term, which is expected to further stimulate downstream demand growth.

　　而“三桶油”作为上游天然气的主要供应商，在供给逐渐宽松的背景下，也在为天然气寻找更多的消费场景。“‘三桶油’决策的背后逻辑是对未来5~10年国际天然气市场供需的判断。它们认为，市场将进入供大于求的阶段。工业用气和城燃增长空间有限。中海油很早就成立专门的气电公司，把气电作为一项业务板块来发展。中石油很早就与发电公司合作，参股了多个气电项目，自身也有自发自用的气电项目。中石化亦开始与发电企业合作入股气电项目。”一位油气公司人士称。

　　As the main supplier of upstream natural gas, "Three Barrel Oil" is also seeking more consumption scenarios for natural gas in the context of gradually relaxed supply. The logic behind the 'three barrels of oil' decision is a judgment on the supply and demand of the international natural gas market in the next 5-10 years. They believe that the market will enter a stage of oversupply. The growth space for industrial gas and urban combustion is limited. CNOOC has established a dedicated gas and electricity company for a long time, developing gas and electricity as a business sector. PetroChina has cooperated with power generation companies for a long time, participating in multiple gas and electricity projects and also having self owned gas and electricity projects. Sinopec has also begun to cooperate with power generation companies to invest in gas and electricity projects, "said an oil and gas company insider.

　　2024年6月，国家发展改革委发布了《天然气利用管理办法》(新版《天然气利用政策》)，明确将气源落实、具有经济可持续性的天然气调峰电站项目、天然气热电联产项目、油气电氢综合能源供应项目、终端天然气掺氢示范项目等天然气安全高效利用新业态等列为天然气优先利用领域。

　　In June 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Management Measures for Natural Gas Utilization" (new version of the "Natural Gas Utilization Policy"), which clearly listed new forms of natural gas safe and efficient utilization, such as gas source implementation, economically sustainable natural gas peak shaving power station projects, natural gas cogeneration projects, oil and gas electricity hydrogen comprehensive energy supply projects, and terminal natural gas hydrogen blending demonstration projects, as priority areas for natural gas utilization.

　　未来，我国新建天然气发电项目应该更加“因地制宜”，如在江浙沪、广东、北京等用电需求高的区域，大力发展H级和F级高效重型燃机及分布式燃机；有较强调峰需求的区域，西部北部气源丰富、新能源发电较多的地区适当布局调峰气电。如在新疆、青海、内蒙古等天然气和风光资源富集区配套建设一批燃气调峰电站，建立协同配合的“气风互补”或“气光互补”发电组合，以进一步减少弃风弃光，提升可再生能源发电总出力水平、电网运行的可靠性以及电源外送能力。

　　In the future, new natural gas power generation projects in China should be more tailored to local conditions. For example, in regions with high electricity demand such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Beijing, efforts should be made to develop H-class and F-class high-efficiency heavy-duty gas turbines and distributed gas turbines; Regions with strong demand for peak shaving, such as the western and northern regions with abundant gas sources and abundant new energy generation, should appropriately layout peak shaving gas and electricity. If a batch of gas peak shaving power stations are built in natural gas and wind and solar resource rich areas such as Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia, and a coordinated "gas wind complementary" or "gas solar complementary" power generation combination is established to further reduce wind and solar power curtailment, improve the total output level of renewable energy generation, the reliability of power grid operation, and the power transmission capacity.

　　根据中石油规划总院，预计2030年气电装机规模将达到2.2亿千瓦左右，发电年用气量将达约1250亿立方米。对于天然气发电行业来说，加强天然气与电力市场的衔接尤为重要，健全天然气发电等调节性资源价格机制，可以更好地发挥其在构建新型电力系统中的支撑作用。只有理顺机制才能够解决气电进入现货市场后，如何通过多渠道的市场机制回收发电成本的问题。

　　According to the China Petroleum Planning Institute, it is expected that the installed capacity of gas and electricity will reach around 220 million kilowatts by 2030, and the annual gas consumption for power generation will reach about 125 billion cubic meters. For the natural gas power generation industry, strengthening the connection between natural gas and electricity markets is particularly important. Improving the price mechanism of regulatory resources such as natural gas power generation can better play its supporting role in building a new type of power system. Only by streamlining the mechanism can we solve the problem of how to recover power generation costs through multi-channel market mechanisms after gas and electricity enter the spot market.

　　7月24日，广东省发改委、广东省能源局和国家能源局南方监管局联合发布了《关于调整广东省煤电气电容量电价的通知》（以下简称《通知》）。《通知》要求提高气电机组容量电价，对广东省内不同类型燃气机组容量电价补贴做出区分，加大了气电机组固定成本传导力度，进一步为气电机组提供了稳定的保底收益。后期在面对燃料成本波动、电力市场需求变化等情况时，减少了因电量电价波动带来的利润大幅起伏，一定程度上可改善公司的盈利状况。

　　On July 24th, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Guangdong Provincial Energy Administration, and the Southern Regulatory Bureau of the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Capacity Electricity Price of Guangdong Province's Coal, Electricity, and Thermal Power" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). The Notice requires an increase in the capacity electricity price for gas turbine units, distinguishing between subsidies for different types of gas turbine units in Guangdong Province, and increasing the transmission of fixed costs for gas turbine units, further providing stable guaranteed income for gas turbine units. In the later stage, when facing fluctuations in fuel costs and changes in electricity market demand, the significant profit fluctuations caused by fluctuations in electricity prices were reduced, which can to some extent improve the company's profitability.

　　可以肯定的是，燃气发电在未来的新型电力系统中无法成为主角。但以中国庞大的电力需求基数，即便天然气发电的占比上升1个百分点，对于天然气的市场而言将是巨大的提升。

　　It can be certain that gas-fired power generation will not become the protagonist in the future new power system. But with China's huge electricity demand base, even if the proportion of natural gas power generation increases by 1 percentage point, it will be a huge boost for the natural gas market.

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